The economic cost of the Syrian conflict

A panel of academics and humanitarian advocates meeting at the ANU’s Crawford School of Government today discussed a report prepared by World Vision and Frontier Economics (Europe) on the economic impact of the war in Syria.

Frontier (Europe) estimated that 5 years of conflict has cost Syria an estimated 275 billion US Dollars, reducing real GDP per head by over 45%.

The report also documents the impacts of the Syrian conflict on three neighbouring countries: Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, which have collectively hosted over 4 million refugees from Syria. Lebanon has been the worst affected, with real GDP per head reduced by almost 23%. In Jordan, the impact on GDP per head is estimated at around 12%. The effects on Turkey, by contrast, are estimated to have been limited. This mainly reflects the size of the Turkish economy, and the fact that it has been better able to connect refugees to formal economic activity.

Frontier carried out a careful econometric modelling exercise to estimate the impact of the conflict on national income. The findings of the report also lend support to recent calls for a programme of large scale development and reconstruction as a necessary counterpart to conflict resolution, in order to reverse the damage inflicted to date, and to alleviate the suffering of the region’s populations

The Frontier Economics network of companies regularly advises clients on matters of public policy, international trade, and economic growth.

For more information, please contact Marita O’Keeffe on m.okeeffe@frontier-economics.com or phone +61 3 9620 4488.

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